* Recall vote
for governor an early test of voter sentiment
* An early
benchmark for the presidential race?
* If recall
of Walker fails, Romney could get a boost
By John Whitesides
LA CROSSE,
Wisconsin, June 2 (Reuters) - The battle over whether to recall Wisconsin's
Republican governor, Scott Walker, has sharply divided the state and become a
nationally watched test of his party's push to limit government, slash spending
and challenge public-sector labor unions.
Tuesday's
recall vote also has the attention of two very interested outsiders: Democratic
President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who are gearing up for their
Nov. 6 showdown for the White House.
Whatever
happens when Wisconsin voters decide whether Walker should be replaced by
Democrat Tom Barrett, the repercussions promise to echo deep into the
presidential campaign.
At a time
when national polls show Obama and Romney in a virtual tie, both sides see the
wrangling in Wisconsin as a chance to organize and gain early momentum in a
politically divided state that could be crucial in determining who wins the
presidency.
The recall
battle has raged for months, sparked by Walker's elimination last year of most
collective bargaining rights for public-sector unions. That led to huge street
protests in Madison, the state capital, and to the recall effort that will
culminate in Tuesday's vote.
Walker's
national supporters see the recall as a referendum on his take-no-prisoners
brand of fiscal conservatism, and both sides in the presidential race plan to
scour Tuesday's results to gauge the mood of the electorate heading into
November's bigger battles.
"The
vote here will definitely be seen as a harbinger of things to come," said
Wisconsin-based Republican consultant Mark Graul. "The winning side will
have tremendous momentum, and there will be implications far beyond
Wisconsin."
Wisconsin has
not backed a Republican in a presidential election since it went for Ronald
Reagan in 1984, but Republicans hope a recall win will demoralize Democrats and
sharply boost Romney's hopes.
Most recent
polls have shown Walker ahead of Barrett, who is the mayor of Milwaukee, by
about 7 percentage points in the recall election. But in a reflection of how
difficult it can be to read the political tea leaves in a "swing"
state such as Wisconsin, polls have shown Obama ahead of Romney by 6 to 10
points.
Obama easily
captured Wisconsin by 14 percentage points in the 2008 election, when he defeated
Republican John McCain. Two years later, Republicans in Wisconsin roared back
to elect Walker, defeat Democratic U.S. Senator Russ Feingold and take over the
state legislature.
"If the
governor is successful" in warding off a recall, "it will show the
mood of voters is closer to where it was in 2010 than in 2008," Graul
said. "And that could portend trouble for Obama here and in other similar
states, like Ohio," another Midwestern state that will be perhaps the most
significant battleground in the presidential race.
'ROCK STAR FOR THE RIGHT'
Walker's
bulldozing approach to cutting state budgets has made him what Barrett
derisively calls "a rock star for the far right."
Walker's
rising status in the Republican Party has been evident as fellow Republican
governors such as Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Chris Christie of New Jersey
have appeared with him in Wisconsin.
Former
President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, campaigned in Milwaukee for Barrett on
Friday, attacking Walker's "divide and conquer" approach to governing
and warning that Walker's conservative allies will be emboldened if he wins.
The Wisconsin
recall has offered another glimpse of how unfettered spending by partisan
groups outside the campaigns can drive the conversation in elections - a
poignant message as such groups have begun spending what they estimate will be
hundreds of millions of dollars on the presidential race.
Conservative
groups such as Americans for Prosperity, funded by the billionaire conservative
brothers Charles and David Koch, have poured millions of dollars into Wisconsin
and plastered the state's airwaves with anti-Barrett ads. It is part of an
effort to make a statement for their conservative cause - and set a tone for
the presidential election.
Walker has
raised $31 million to Barrett's $4.2 million, and by late April about
two-thirds of Walker's 2012 donations had come from out-of-state donors,
according to finance reports compiled by the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign,
which tracks money in state politics.
"If
Governor Walker survives this, then national Republican and conservative
leaders are going to see him as the spearhead for a movement," said Joe
Heim, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse.
Romney and
Obama have avoided much involvement in the Wisconsin race, perhaps a sign that
the presidential candidates are not willing to risk being tied too closely with
either side.
When Romney
was in Wisconsin to campaign in the state's April 3 presidential primary he
called Walker a "hero." Obama endorsed Barrett in a brief statement
after the May 8 Democratic primary but has said nothing publicly.
Even some
Democrats think Barrett has run an ineffective, uninspiring campaign with his
attack on the governor's leadership that moved beyond Walker's push for
anti-union legislation.
Barrett has
targeted Walker's record on creating jobs and raised questions about a criminal
probe into whether Walker's aides when he was Milwaukee County executive did
political fundraising on public time.
But after
months of polarized battle over Walker's agenda, most Wisconsin voters seem to
have made up their minds. A recent Marquette University law school poll said
just 3 percent of voters remain undecided; a Democratic poll this week put the
figure at 1 percent.
That makes
voter turnout a potentially huge factor in the recall vote. Both sides have
promised unprecedented get-out-the-vote operations.
"We've
said all along this will be very close and will be decided by turnout, and we
think we'll have the most effective turnout operation," Wisconsin
Democratic Party Chairman Mike Tate said.
While
Democrats have a slight edge in voter registration in Wisconsin, Republicans
seem to have at least a slight edge in enthusiasm. The Marquette poll found 91
percent of Republicans were "absolutely certain" to vote, compared
with 83 percent of both Democrats and independents.
'A DRY RUN'
"When I
make calls, I get Republicans who are really angry this is happening. The
Democrats are mad too, but I don't think they are as passionate about it,"
said Chris Johnson, a retired teacher who volunteers at a Walker field office
in La Crosse.
Walker has
opened 22 offices around the state to direct his turnout operations, and he
said volunteers have made more than 2 million calls to voters - more than
during his entire 2010 race.
Volunteers
made more than 200,000 contacts with voters on a recent weekend day, and other
Midwestern state Republican parties are setting up their own phone banks for
Walker.
Volunteers
with the state Democratic Party knocked on 100,000 doors that same weekend day,
and labor groups also have set up their own networks of more than two dozen
field offices.
The turnout
operations will serve as a test run for November's presidential contest. Tate
said there was significant overlap, for example, between the state Democrats'
field staff and Obama's campaign.
Some
Wisconsin Democrats have grumbled about the lack of support from the national
party.
The
Republican Governors Association was one of the biggest spenders in the race,
pumping in nearly $8 million, while the Democratic National Committee only sent
out a late fund-raising appeal last week.
State
officials are predicting a big turnout on Tuesday, and Democrats are targeting
people who voted in 2008 but not 2010. They are hoping to get 150,000 to
200,000 recall voters to the polls who did not cast a ballot in 2010 - when
Walker won by about 100,000 votes.
The risk is
that the losers will be demoralized after the intensity of the recall fight,
making it harder to get them back to work in the campaigns for November's
presidential election.
"It's
very easy to burn out the average political volunteer. I'm not sure how easy it
will be to get people back through the door in September," said Brian
Westrate, the Republican chairman in Wisconsin's Eau Claire County. "But
it will be a lot easier if we win."
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